Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Jarvis 46.8% (+15.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 57.4%
Defensive zone
Jarvis 51.9%
Neutral zone
Jarvis 59.7%
Result
Seth Jarvis favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Tavares
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tavares
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
0
1
Tavares
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
44.2% (52)
+13.8%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
33.3% (6)
+23.7%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
40.0% (15)
+17.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Jarvis is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
Tavares
Jarvis
Home
57.8% (614)
43.6% (39)
Away
57.8% (554)
41.2% (34)
By Period
Tavares
Jarvis
P1
58.0%
37.5%
P2
56.9%
48.3%
P3
58.4%
38.9%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
25.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |