Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +24.1% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Jarvis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Jarvis 40.5% (+24.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 71.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 89.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 79.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Tavares
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Tavares
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Jarvis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Jarvis
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Jarvis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
32.1% (81)
+25.6%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
38.6% (57)
+21.9%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
28.6% (14)
+27.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Jarvis is 29.6% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Tavares
Jarvis
Home
59.7% (610)
40.6% (69)
Away
57.0% (698)
28.9% (83)
By Period
Tavares
Jarvis
P1
57.2%
30.9%
P2
58.5%
30.6%
P3
59.4%
47.1%
OT
46.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
28.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
34.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 10:16 | Neutral | Seth Jarvis |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 11:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |