Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Pinto 50.1% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 55.6%
Defensive zone
Pinto 88.4%
Neutral zone
Pinto 69.4%
Result
Shane Pinto favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Tavares
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tavares
Pinto
Last 8: Tavares 3-5 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Pinto
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
2
Tavares
Pinto
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
3
Tavares
Pinto
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
50.4% (779)
+7.3%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
55.2% (29)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
44.9% (78)
+11.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Pinto is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Home / Away
Tavares
Pinto
Home
59.7% (610)
52.4% (454)
Away
57.0% (698)
47.7% (432)
By Period
Tavares
Pinto
P1
57.2%
48.1%
P2
58.5%
52.9%
P3
59.4%
49.3%
OT
46.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:57 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 06:49 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 12:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 01:59 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 03:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |