Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 51.2% vs Crosby 50.1% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 56.2%
Defensive zone
Crosby 51.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Tavares
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Tavares
Crosby
Last 8: Tavares 5-3 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Crosby
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Crosby
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Crosby
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (1,232)
49.3% (335)
+2.2%
Power Play
51.1% (305)
54.7% (106)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (30)
28.6% (7)
+8.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Tavares is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,084).
Tavares shoots left. Crosby is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Tavares
Crosby
Home
52.8% (781)
57.1% (240)
Away
49.9% (804)
42.3% (213)
By Period
Tavares
Crosby
P1
52.8%
55.0%
P2
52.1%
46.3%
P3
48.7%
50.0%
OT
63.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.3%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2012 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 29, 2012 | 3 | 08:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 29, 2012 | 2 | 10:58 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 29, 2012 | 1 | 00:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 27, 2012 | 3 | 04:20 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 27, 2012 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 2 | 01:27 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |