Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.2% vs Hertl 51.4% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 67.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 53.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 60.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Tavares
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Tavares
Hertl
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,201)
51.7% (869)
+1.3%
Power Play
61.5% (262)
55.7% (176)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (65)
44.9% (138)
+8.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tavares is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Tavares shoots left. Hertl is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hertl
Home
57.5% (762)
51.8% (583)
Away
51.4% (766)
51.2% (600)
By Period
Tavares
Hertl
P1
54.5%
52.5%
P2
53.2%
50.9%
P3
55.5%
51.0%
OT
60.0%
53.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2018 | 3 | 10:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 2 | 00:08 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 1 | 13:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 1 | 13:33 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 1 | 02:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |