Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.8% vs 57.8%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Hertl 57.2% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 55.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 55.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Tavares
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Tavares
Hertl
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Tavares
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
58.1% (823)
-0.1%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
56.2% (265)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
62.9% (35)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hertl
Home
57.8% (614)
59.7% (561)
Away
57.8% (554)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Tavares
Hertl
P1
58.0%
51.6%
P2
56.9%
63.8%
P3
58.4%
58.6%
OT
57.7%
28.6%
Final 5 min
57.8%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 17:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 02:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 05:16 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 16:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | John Tavares |