Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 60.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 50.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Tavares
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Tavares
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Tavares
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Tavares
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
54.1% (717)
+3.6%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
61.9% (210)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
58.1% (31)
-1.7%
On even strength, Tavares has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hertl
Home
59.7% (610)
58.1% (492)
Away
57.0% (698)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Tavares
Hertl
P1
57.2%
57.1%
P2
58.5%
54.0%
P3
59.4%
56.6%
OT
46.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 17:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 18:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |