Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Hertl 54.5% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 58.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 64.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Tavares
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Tavares
Hertl
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Tavares
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
2
Tavares
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
54.1% (1,117)
+3.4%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
59.8% (296)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
34.4% (32)
+24.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hertl
Home
61.0% (661)
54.3% (709)
Away
55.3% (584)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Tavares
Hertl
P1
58.6%
51.6%
P2
57.8%
53.6%
P3
58.4%
58.6%
OT
66.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
63.4%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 3 | 07:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 03:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 05:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | OT | 00:42 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 12:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 06:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |