Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Hertl 56.8% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 69.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 60.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 53.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 60.3%
60.3%
39.7%
Tavares
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Tavares
Hertl
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Tavares
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
57.0% (718)
+2.2%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
64.9% (188)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
44.2% (77)
-1.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hertl
Home
57.5% (668)
59.2% (463)
Away
61.1% (684)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Tavares
Hertl
P1
58.0%
56.3%
P2
60.1%
55.4%
P3
61.0%
60.5%
OT
27.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 19:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |