Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 65.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 73.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Tavares
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Tavares
Hertl
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Tavares
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Tavares
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
51.6% (1,084)
+9.3%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
61.0% (246)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
44.1% (136)
+3.5%
On even strength, Tavares has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hertl
Home
63.5% (684)
55.2% (696)
Away
57.6% (658)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Tavares
Hertl
P1
60.3%
55.4%
P2
60.4%
54.8%
P3
60.1%
48.9%
OT
92.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 11:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 18:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 01:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 03:44 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 10:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |