Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Drouin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Drouin wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 43.2% vs Duchene 52.8% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 66.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 85.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 78.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 75.7%
24.3%
75.7%
Drouin
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Drouin
Duchene
Last 8: Drouin 5-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Drouin
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Drouin
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Drouin
3
0
Drouin
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (869)
52.6% (1,112)
-11.1%
Power Play
47.9% (167)
56.0% (193)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (15)
49.0% (49)
-9.0%
On even strength, Duchene has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Drouin is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Drouin shoots left. Duchene is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (873).
Home / Away
Drouin
Duchene
Home
42.8% (502)
55.7% (652)
Away
42.3% (549)
50.4% (702)
By Period
Drouin
Duchene
P1
44.0%
51.4%
P2
39.7%
53.9%
P3
44.4%
53.3%
OT
37.5%
55.6%
Final 5 min
42.7%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
42.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2018 | 2 | 18:47 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 4, 2018 | 2 | 15:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 4, 2018 | 1 | 12:40 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 4, 2018 | 1 | 08:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2017 | 3 | 18:32 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Dec 16, 2017 | 2 | 07:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Dec 16, 2017 | 1 | 04:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 29, 2017 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |