Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Drouin wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 45.6% vs Paul 53.4% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 79.4%
Defensive zone
Drouin 56.9%
Neutral zone
Drouin 60.2%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Drouin
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Drouin
Paul
Last 6: Drouin 2-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Drouin
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Drouin
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Drouin
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (355)
53.8% (753)
-8.7%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
58.9% (90)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
47.4% (78)
-47.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +47.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Drouin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Drouin shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Drouin
Paul
Home
37.5% (160)
54.2% (450)
Away
49.5% (220)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Drouin
Paul
P1
40.3%
58.2%
P2
43.3%
50.6%
P3
49.6%
52.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
37.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:54 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 11:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:34 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 03:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |