Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 49.5% vs Paul 53.3% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 60.3%
Defensive zone
Paul 82.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 70.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Drouin
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Drouin
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
2
0
Drouin
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (181)
53.2% (327)
-5.7%
Power Play
56.8% (44)
61.4% (57)
-4.6%
On even strength, Paul has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Drouin is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Drouin shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Drouin
Paul
Home
49.5% (97)
54.6% (183)
Away
49.2% (128)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Drouin
Paul
P1
52.1%
56.3%
P2
51.5%
54.8%
P3
45.0%
52.4%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | OT | 02:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |