Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Drouin wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 44.5% vs Paul 52.2% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Drouin 84.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 57.7%
Neutral zone
Drouin 67.9%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Drouin
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Drouin
Paul
Last 10: Drouin 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Drouin
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Drouin
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Drouin
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (1,824)
52.5% (3,796)
-9.0%
Power Play
48.3% (387)
56.5% (480)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (23)
46.7% (574)
-7.6%
On even strength, Paul has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Drouin is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,385).
Drouin shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Drouin
Paul
Home
44.0% (1,041)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
44.5% (1,193)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Drouin
Paul
P1
45.9%
53.9%
P2
42.0%
51.0%
P3
45.0%
52.0%
OT
47.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | OT | 02:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:54 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 11:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:34 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 03:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 08:37 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 23, 2021 | OT | 00:32 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |