Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 49.5% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 66.3%
Defensive zone
Drouin 52.4%
Neutral zone
Drouin 54.7%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Drouin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Drouin
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Drouin
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (181)
55.4% (826)
-7.9%
Power Play
56.8% (44)
57.9% (221)
-1.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Drouin is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Drouin shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Drouin
O'Reilly
Home
49.5% (97)
55.8% (579)
Away
49.2% (128)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Drouin
O'Reilly
P1
52.1%
57.7%
P2
51.5%
54.8%
P3
45.0%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 19:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |