Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Drouin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Drouin wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 48.8% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 63.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 92.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 86.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 73.8%
26.2%
73.8%
Drouin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Drouin
O'Reilly
Last 5: Drouin 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
3
0
Drouin
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Drouin
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Drouin
1
0
Drouin
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (58)
56.6% (1,064)
-8.3%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
60.4% (260)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
54.0% (261)
-54.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +54.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Drouin is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (34).
Drouin shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Drouin
O'Reilly
Home
45.8% (24)
54.9% (801)
Away
47.6% (42)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Drouin
O'Reilly
P1
46.2%
58.0%
P2
43.5%
56.7%
P3
52.9%
55.4%
Final 5 min
47.6%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 05:55 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 05:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 19:08 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 19:03 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 15:20 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |