Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Drouin wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 45.6% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 69.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 69.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 54.2%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Drouin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Drouin
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
1
0
Drouin
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Drouin
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (355)
56.1% (690)
-11.0%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
64.6% (96)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
45.9% (109)
-45.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +45.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Drouin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Drouin shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Drouin
O'Reilly
Home
37.5% (160)
58.3% (408)
Away
49.5% (220)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Drouin
O'Reilly
P1
40.3%
57.7%
P2
43.3%
54.8%
P3
49.6%
55.2%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
37.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 03:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 00:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |