Jonathan Marchessault vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +18.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchessault 45.9% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-18.2%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 54.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Marchessault
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
30.0% (30)
50.0% (992)
-20.0%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
64.9% (148)
+1.8%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Marchessault is 22.2% vs right-shot opponents (9).
Marchessault shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Home
33.3% (21)
53.3% (591)
Away
33.3% (12)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Marchessault
MacKinnon
P1
45.5%
49.9%
P2
25.0%
53.2%
P3
22.2%
50.8%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
14.3%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchessault
32.0%▬
32.0%
33.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%