Jonathan Marchessault vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Marchessault wins 46.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchessault 42.2% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Marchessault leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Marchessault 50.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 91.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 60.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 66.7%
33.3%
66.7%
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
11
(25 meetings)
14
11
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Last 10: Marchessault 2-8 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marchessault
5
1
Marchessault
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
6
Marchessault
MacKinnon
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marchessault
8
4
Marchessault
MacKinnon
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
41.3% (1,437)
46.1% (11,218)
-4.8%
Power Play
44.3% (264)
53.3% (1,412)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
42.8% (502)
+1.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Marchessault is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (589).
Marchessault shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Home
42.5% (888)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
41.0% (822)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Marchessault
MacKinnon
P1
43.1%
47.4%
P2
42.1%
46.6%
P3
39.9%
46.1%
OT
42.3%
48.4%
Final 5 min
43.6%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchessault
32.0%▬
32.0%
41.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 19:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 1 | 03:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 05:40 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 13:50 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 1 | 09:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 16, 2021 | 2 | 05:42 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 16, 2021 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 14, 2021 | 3 | 06:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 14, 2021 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 14, 2021 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 14, 2021 | 1 | 13:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 1 | 07:05 | Defensive | Jonathan Marchessault |