Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Hayes 49.5% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 89.6%
Defensive zone
Hayes 71.1%
Neutral zone
Hayes 77.2%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 77.3%
22.7%
77.3%
Staal
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Staal
Hayes
Last 10: Staal 3-7 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
3
Staal
Hayes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
4
Staal
Hayes
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
3
Staal
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
48.5% (557)
+7.8%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
53.3% (107)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
58.3% (12)
-6.2%
On power play, Staal has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Staal shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Staal
Hayes
Home
58.3% (705)
50.8% (313)
Away
53.3% (769)
48.2% (363)
By Period
Staal
Hayes
P1
54.5%
52.3%
P2
58.2%
47.7%
P3
54.1%
48.4%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.9%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:11 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:56 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 15:32 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 01:49 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 09:29 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 09:24 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 17:55 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:14 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:28 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |