Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 21 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Hayes 47.7% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 31-26 in 57 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 65.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 75.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 73.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Staal
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
26
(57 meetings)
31
26
Staal
Hayes
Last 10: Staal 5-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
10
7
Staal
Hayes
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
7
12
Staal
Hayes
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
14
7
Staal
Hayes
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
47.5% (6,708)
+8.4%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
51.7% (702)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
45.3% (697)
+2.7%
On power play, Staal has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Home / Away
Staal
Hayes
Home
56.4% (9,663)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Staal
Hayes
P1
55.2%
47.5%
P2
55.9%
47.6%
P3
54.9%
47.9%
OT
56.2%
54.1%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:11 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:56 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 15:32 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 01:49 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 09:29 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 09:24 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 17:55 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:14 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:28 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 19:42 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 2 | 17:36 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 1 | 09:54 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 1 | 00:36 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |