Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (84% H2H, 43 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Draisaitl 53.3% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 69-58 in 127 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 72.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 70.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 52.6%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Staal
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
69
-
58
(127 meetings)
69
58
Staal
Draisaitl
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
15
32
Staal
Draisaitl
47 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
36
7
Staal
Draisaitl
43 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
18
19
Staal
Draisaitl
37 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
52.9% (10,240)
+3.0%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
55.7% (2,827)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
51.2% (977)
-3.2%
On power play, Staal has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Draisaitl is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,946).
Home / Away
Staal
Draisaitl
Home
56.4% (9,663)
54.6% (7,049)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
52.0% (6,995)
By Period
Staal
Draisaitl
P1
55.2%
52.7%
P2
55.9%
53.6%
P3
54.9%
53.4%
OT
56.2%
57.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:14 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:09 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 03:39 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 03:20 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:15 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 17:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 01:09 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:54 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:24 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 03:47 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 12:44 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 18:43 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 15:48 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |