Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 60.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Kastelic 55.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 82.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 59.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 54.3%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Staal
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Staal
Kastelic
Last 7: Staal 2-5 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Kastelic
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
2
Staal
Kastelic
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
3
Staal
Kastelic
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
58.0% (476)
-1.7%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
75.0% (8)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
50.9% (106)
+1.2%
On power play, Kastelic has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Staal is 60.2% vs right-shot opponents (528).
Staal shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Staal
Kastelic
Home
58.3% (705)
64.9% (265)
Away
53.3% (769)
50.5% (325)
By Period
Staal
Kastelic
P1
54.5%
58.5%
P2
58.2%
55.6%
P3
54.1%
56.8%
Final 5 min
54.9%
62.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 11:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |