Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 65.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Kastelic 58.3% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 58.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 83.8%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 66.4%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Staal
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Staal
Kastelic
Last 7: Staal 5-2 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Kastelic
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Kastelic
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
61.2% (340)
-5.1%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
83.3% (6)
-16.4%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
56.0% (141)
-13.0%
On power play, Kastelic has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Staal shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Staal
Kastelic
Home
55.4% (663)
60.9% (233)
Away
54.4% (676)
59.1% (254)
By Period
Staal
Kastelic
P1
55.1%
58.6%
P2
54.7%
58.7%
P3
53.9%
63.1%
OT
70.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
57.2%
67.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 10:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |