Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 76.2%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 66.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 50.8%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Staal
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Staal
Kastelic
Last 10: Staal 5-5 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Kastelic
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
5
Staal
Kastelic
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
4
Staal
Kastelic
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
57.0% (1,613)
-1.1%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
80.0% (25)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
53.6% (274)
-5.6%
On power play, Kastelic has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Staal shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Home / Away
Staal
Kastelic
Home
56.4% (9,663)
58.9% (895)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
55.1% (1,017)
By Period
Staal
Kastelic
P1
55.2%
58.5%
P2
55.9%
56.9%
P3
54.9%
55.3%
OT
56.2%
53.8%
Final 5 min
56.1%
59.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 10:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2 | 14:27 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:37 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 11:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 19:31 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 08:27 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |