Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs McTavish 43.3% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 52.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 63.0%
Neutral zone
McTavish 55.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Staal
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Staal
McTavish
Last 10: Staal 6-4 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
3
Staal
McTavish
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
1
Staal
McTavish
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
3
Staal
McTavish
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
42.4% (675)
+13.9%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
40.5% (42)
+20.7%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
50.0% (8)
+2.1%
On power play, Staal has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Staal shoots left. McTavish is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Staal
McTavish
Home
58.3% (705)
41.9% (372)
Away
53.3% (769)
42.8% (353)
By Period
Staal
McTavish
P1
54.5%
47.2%
P2
58.2%
36.2%
P3
54.1%
43.6%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.9%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 10:15 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 14:56 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 10:26 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 19:38 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 16:02 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 03:24 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |