Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs McTavish 51.5% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 55.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 81.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 51.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Staal
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Staal
McTavish
Last 10: Staal 5-5 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
2
Staal
McTavish
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Staal
McTavish
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
4
1
Staal
McTavish
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
51.3% (725)
+7.6%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
55.8% (113)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
28.6% (7)
+23.2%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Staal shoots left. McTavish is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Staal
McTavish
Home
57.0% (646)
52.0% (454)
Away
59.1% (729)
51.4% (391)
By Period
Staal
McTavish
P1
55.9%
51.3%
P2
55.4%
50.4%
P3
62.0%
53.3%
OT
70.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:56 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 16:41 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 10:06 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 04:41 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 01:14 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:14 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 01:00 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:29 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 03:01 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |