Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs McTavish 50.6% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 61.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 77.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 61.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Staal
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Staal
McTavish
Last 10: Staal 6-4 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
McTavish
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
2
Staal
McTavish
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
2
Staal
McTavish
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
51.1% (769)
+5.9%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
50.6% (178)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
28.6% (14)
+16.5%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Staal shoots left. McTavish is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (665).
Home / Away
Staal
McTavish
Home
54.3% (667)
52.3% (461)
Away
54.7% (662)
49.2% (500)
By Period
Staal
McTavish
P1
56.2%
51.5%
P2
57.0%
54.0%
P3
49.7%
47.1%
OT
68.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 16:07 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:34 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:54 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |