Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 20 meetings). Staal wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs McTavish 48.9% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 30-25 in 55 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 54.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 80.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 63.3%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 66.8%
66.8%
33.2%
Staal
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
25
(55 meetings)
30
25
Staal
McTavish
Last 10: Staal 7-3 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
9
8
Staal
McTavish
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
12
8
Staal
McTavish
20 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
Staal
McTavish
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (14,405)
48.4% (2,704)
+7.6%
Power Play
62.6% (1,691)
52.7% (421)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (2,841)
34.3% (35)
+13.8%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Staal is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (12,525).
Staal shoots left. McTavish is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,090).
Home / Away
Staal
McTavish
Home
56.4% (9,518)
50.2% (1,592)
Away
54.4% (9,484)
47.5% (1,568)
By Period
Staal
McTavish
P1
55.1%
50.3%
P2
56.0%
48.1%
P3
55.0%
48.4%
OT
55.6%
43.5%
Final 5 min
56.1%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.4%
McTavish
48.0%▼
51.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 14:26 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 02:51 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:09 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:10 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:22 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:09 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |