Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Barzal 42.2% (+13.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 26-11 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 86.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 98.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 96.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 94.3%
94.3%
5.7%
Staal
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
11
(37 meetings)
26
11
Staal
Barzal
Last 10: Staal 5-5 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
7
4
Staal
Barzal
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
10
5
Staal
Barzal
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
9
2
Staal
Barzal
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
41.9% (3,565)
+14.0%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
43.4% (205)
+19.3%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
42.3% (26)
+5.7%
On power play, Staal has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Staal shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Home / Away
Staal
Barzal
Home
56.4% (9,663)
43.1% (1,895)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Staal
Barzal
P1
55.2%
40.7%
P2
55.9%
44.4%
P3
54.9%
41.0%
OT
56.2%
27.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:12 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 1 | 12:49 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 12:30 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 14:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 19, 2020 | 3 | 05:49 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2020 | 2 | 16:01 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 19, 2020 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2020 | 1 | 08:13 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2019 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 11, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2019 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2019 | 2 | 16:52 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2019 | 2 | 15:09 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2019 | 1 | 14:26 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |