Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 59.1% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 56.8% vs Barzal 46.9% (+11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 73.3%
Defensive zone
Barzal 63.4%
Neutral zone
Barzal 72.1%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Staal
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Staal
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Staal
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
2
Staal
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,041)
46.6% (483)
+12.3%
Power Play
53.4% (73)
40.9% (22)
+12.5%
On power play, Staal has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Staal is 59.1% vs right-shot opponents (457).
Staal shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Staal
Barzal
Home
59.0% (578)
49.6% (242)
Away
55.9% (707)
43.3% (263)
By Period
Staal
Barzal
P1
57.1%
42.4%
P2
60.9%
49.5%
P3
55.8%
47.7%
OT
20.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
60.5%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 1 | 12:49 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 12:30 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |