Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Duchene 51.6% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 68.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 67.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 51.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Staal
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Staal
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Staal
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
51.2% (324)
+4.9%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
60.4% (53)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
16.7% (6)
+26.3%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Staal shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Staal
Duchene
Home
55.4% (663)
51.6% (182)
Away
54.4% (676)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Staal
Duchene
P1
55.1%
49.6%
P2
54.7%
56.2%
P3
53.9%
48.6%
OT
70.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.2%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |