Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Duchene 52.1% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 67.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 71.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 62.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 66.2%
66.2%
33.8%
Staal
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Staal
Duchene
Last 5: Staal 3-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Staal
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
53.0% (723)
+4.0%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
49.5% (101)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
43.8% (16)
+1.3%
On power play, Staal has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Staal shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Staal
Duchene
Home
54.3% (667)
54.9% (408)
Away
54.7% (662)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Staal
Duchene
P1
56.2%
52.5%
P2
57.0%
51.7%
P3
49.7%
53.6%
OT
68.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 10:30 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |