Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 46 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Duchene 54.1% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 63-48 in 111 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 62.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 76.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 57.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Staal
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
63
-
48
(111 meetings)
63
48
Staal
Duchene
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
23
15
Staal
Duchene
38 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
30
16
Staal
Duchene
46 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
10
17
Staal
Duchene
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
53.9% (10,396)
+2.0%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
56.9% (1,665)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
49.1% (468)
-1.1%
On power play, Staal has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Staal
Duchene
Home
56.4% (9,663)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Staal
Duchene
P1
55.2%
54.5%
P2
55.9%
54.5%
P3
54.9%
53.4%
OT
56.2%
56.3%
Final 5 min
56.1%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 10:30 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:16 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 06:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 2 | 03:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 1 | 09:23 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 09:57 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 15:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 15:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 02:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |