Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Frost 55.7% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 56.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 86.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 64.2%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Staal
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Staal
Frost
Last 10: Staal 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
5
Staal
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
3
Staal
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
54.9% (701)
+1.2%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
60.8% (166)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
100.0% (5)
-57.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +57.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Staal shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Staal
Frost
Home
55.4% (663)
56.0% (443)
Away
54.4% (676)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Staal
Frost
P1
55.1%
58.9%
P2
54.7%
55.3%
P3
53.9%
54.0%
OT
70.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
57.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 08:08 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 09:25 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 04:30 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 03:32 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 04:57 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 04:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |