Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Sturm 56.1% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 68.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 66.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 53.2%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Staal
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Staal
Sturm
Last 10: Staal 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
3
Staal
Sturm
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Staal
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
4
Staal
Sturm
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
57.1% (2,719)
-1.2%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
61.3% (62)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
51.0% (498)
-3.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Staal
Sturm
Home
56.4% (9,663)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Staal
Sturm
P1
55.2%
56.5%
P2
55.9%
54.9%
P3
54.9%
57.4%
OT
56.2%
60.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 15:59 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 10:28 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 10:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 14:08 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 13:53 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 19:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 19:37 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 06:28 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 05:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 02:33 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 02:21 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 03:02 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |