Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Sturm 59.0% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 52.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 50.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 52.3%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Staal
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Staal
Sturm
Last 6: Staal 2-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Staal
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
60.6% (708)
-1.7%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
61.1% (18)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
56.4% (101)
-4.6%
On power play, Staal has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Staal shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Staal
Sturm
Home
57.0% (646)
61.6% (451)
Away
59.1% (729)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Staal
Sturm
P1
55.9%
55.9%
P2
55.4%
58.9%
P3
62.0%
64.6%
OT
70.4%
70.6%
Final 5 min
63.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 15:59 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 10:28 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 10:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 14:08 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 13:53 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |