Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Staal wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 56.8% vs Sturm 52.5% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 66.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 73.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 56.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Staal
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Staal
Sturm
Last 9: Staal 4-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Staal
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
4
Staal
Sturm
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,041)
54.0% (480)
+4.9%
Power Play
53.4% (73)
28.6% (7)
+24.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (171)
50.0% (102)
-0.9%
On power play, Staal has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Staal is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (828).
Staal shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Staal
Sturm
Home
59.0% (578)
54.0% (287)
Away
55.9% (707)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Staal
Sturm
P1
57.1%
53.5%
P2
60.9%
51.0%
P3
55.8%
55.1%
OT
20.8%
20.0%
Final 5 min
60.5%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 06:28 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 05:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 02:33 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 02:21 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 03:02 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |