Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Roy 47.9% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 63.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 82.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 83.7%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 79.0%
79.0%
21.0%
Staal
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Staal
Roy
Last 5: Staal 4-1 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Staal
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
48.6% (679)
+8.4%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
48.0% (50)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
34.7% (49)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Staal is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Staal shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Staal
Roy
Home
54.3% (667)
49.3% (345)
Away
54.7% (662)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Staal
Roy
P1
56.2%
47.6%
P2
57.0%
47.1%
P3
49.7%
47.9%
OT
68.4%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2025 | 2 | 16:07 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 18:37 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 07:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |