Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Roy 48.4% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 24-10 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 96.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 89.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 92.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 92.3%
92.3%
7.7%
Staal
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
10
(34 meetings)
24
10
Staal
Roy
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
2
Staal
Roy
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
10
3
Staal
Roy
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
10
5
Staal
Roy
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
48.7% (3,719)
+7.2%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
49.5% (283)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
45.5% (477)
+2.5%
On power play, Staal has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Staal shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Staal
Roy
Home
56.4% (9,663)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Staal
Roy
P1
55.2%
50.8%
P2
55.9%
46.3%
P3
54.9%
48.1%
OT
56.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:31 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:04 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 2 | 16:07 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 18:37 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 07:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 17:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 07:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 05:33 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 2 | 01:18 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |