Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +17.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Buchnevich 41.2% (+17.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 76.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 96.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 94.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 93.4%
93.4%
6.6%
Staal
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Staal
Buchnevich
Last 8: Staal 7-1 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Buchnevich
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
1
Staal
Buchnevich
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Buchnevich
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
37.0% (211)
+20.0%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
50.0% (10)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
28.6% (7)
+16.5%
On even strength, Staal has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Staal shoots left. Buchnevich is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Staal
Buchnevich
Home
54.3% (667)
35.6% (87)
Away
54.7% (662)
38.3% (141)
By Period
Staal
Buchnevich
P1
56.2%
36.3%
P2
57.0%
37.6%
P3
49.7%
38.1%
Final 5 min
48.8%
36.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 2 | 14:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 2 | 10:40 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 2 | 05:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 2 | 05:17 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 1 | 19:35 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 1 | 03:08 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |