Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 64.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 82.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 57.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Staal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Staal
Hertl
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
6
Staal
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
1
Staal
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Staal
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
58.1% (823)
-2.0%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
56.2% (265)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
62.9% (35)
-19.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Staal shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Staal
Hertl
Home
55.4% (663)
59.7% (561)
Away
54.4% (676)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Staal
Hertl
P1
55.1%
51.6%
P2
54.7%
63.8%
P3
53.9%
58.6%
OT
70.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
57.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 18:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 10:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 09:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |