Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Staal wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 56.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 55.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Staal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Staal
Hertl
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
3
Staal
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
5
Staal
Hertl
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Staal
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,041)
51.6% (1,084)
+7.3%
Power Play
53.4% (73)
61.0% (246)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (171)
44.1% (136)
+5.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Staal is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (828).
Staal shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Staal
Hertl
Home
59.0% (578)
55.2% (696)
Away
55.9% (707)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Staal
Hertl
P1
57.1%
55.4%
P2
60.9%
54.8%
P3
55.8%
48.9%
OT
20.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
60.5%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 16:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 14:16 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 04:08 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 18:27 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 13:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 1 | 15:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 1 | 12:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 1 | 12:35 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 1 | 06:49 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 1 | 00:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 19:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 11:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |