Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.1% vs 57.5%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Staal wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Hertl 56.8% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 67.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 67.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Staal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
13
(24 meetings)
11
13
Staal
Hertl
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
4
Staal
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Staal
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
7
Staal
Hertl
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
57.0% (718)
+1.9%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
64.9% (188)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
44.2% (77)
+7.6%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Staal shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Staal
Hertl
Home
57.0% (646)
59.2% (463)
Away
59.1% (729)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Staal
Hertl
P1
55.9%
56.3%
P2
55.4%
55.4%
P3
62.0%
60.5%
OT
70.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 17:10 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:22 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 04:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 19:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 16:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 06:10 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 11:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 09:07 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 16:06 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 14:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 11:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |