Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Hertl 55.4% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 87.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 72.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Staal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
Staal
Hertl
Last 10: Staal 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
7
Staal
Hertl
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
9
1
Staal
Hertl
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
54.1% (717)
+2.9%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
61.9% (210)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
58.1% (31)
-13.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Staal shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Staal
Hertl
Home
54.3% (667)
58.1% (492)
Away
54.7% (662)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Staal
Hertl
P1
56.2%
57.1%
P2
57.0%
54.0%
P3
49.7%
56.6%
OT
68.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:45 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 2 | 03:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 1 | 17:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 1 | 16:16 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 1 | 05:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 12:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 01:57 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 11:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 03:27 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 16:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |