Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 67 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Hertl 54.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 80-77 in 157 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 67.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 61.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Staal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
77
-
80
(157 meetings)
77
80
Staal
Hertl
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
24
43
Staal
Hertl
67 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
31
14
Staal
Hertl
45 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
22
23
Staal
Hertl
45 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
53.8% (8,268)
+2.1%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
59.3% (1,975)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
46.3% (806)
+1.7%
On power play, Staal has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Staal
Hertl
Home
56.4% (9,663)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Staal
Hertl
P1
55.2%
53.6%
P2
55.9%
54.1%
P3
54.9%
55.3%
OT
56.2%
46.5%
Final 5 min
56.1%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 18:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 10:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 09:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:45 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |