Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 54.8%). Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Hertl 54.5% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 16-10 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 70.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 79.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 51.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Staal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
10
(26 meetings)
16
10
Staal
Hertl
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
6
Staal
Hertl
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
2
Staal
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
7
2
Staal
Hertl
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
54.1% (1,117)
+2.2%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
59.8% (296)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
34.4% (32)
+17.7%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Staal shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Staal
Hertl
Home
58.3% (705)
54.3% (709)
Away
53.3% (769)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Staal
Hertl
P1
54.5%
51.6%
P2
58.2%
53.6%
P3
54.1%
58.6%
OT
60.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
54.9%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 14:08 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 08:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:17 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 18:45 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 14:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:49 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:07 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 15:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 07:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |