Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Hertl 51.4% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 65.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 61.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Staal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Staal
Hertl
Last 10: Staal 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
1
Staal
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Staal
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.7% (750)
51.7% (869)
+5.0%
Power Play
62.5% (120)
55.7% (176)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (153)
44.9% (138)
+1.5%
On power play, Staal has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Staal is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Staal shoots left. Hertl is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Staal
Hertl
Home
58.8% (522)
51.8% (583)
Away
52.7% (501)
51.2% (600)
By Period
Staal
Hertl
P1
60.8%
52.5%
P2
55.9%
50.9%
P3
51.7%
51.0%
OT
46.2%
53.3%
Final 5 min
56.5%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2018 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 2 | 03:11 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 1 | 19:46 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 1 | 12:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |