Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.1% vs Johnson 49.2% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 53.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 81.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 79.2%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Staal
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Staal
Johnson
Last 6: Staal 4-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
2
Staal
Johnson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (943)
47.2% (286)
+7.0%
Power Play
69.6% (79)
61.8% (55)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (262)
33.3% (12)
+17.5%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (452).
Staal shoots left. Johnson is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (263).
Home / Away
Staal
Johnson
Home
55.0% (593)
55.0% (151)
Away
54.0% (691)
44.6% (202)
By Period
Staal
Johnson
P1
54.3%
42.3%
P2
53.5%
56.2%
P3
55.2%
47.3%
OT
58.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.4%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.4%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2020 | 1 | 11:00 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 1 | 10:42 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 1 | 06:10 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |