Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 30 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Johnson 49.7% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 49-36 in 85 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 64.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 88.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 84.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 79.1%
79.1%
20.9%
Staal
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
49
-
36
(85 meetings)
49
36
Staal
Johnson
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
18
12
Staal
Johnson
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
19
15
Staal
Johnson
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
12
9
Staal
Johnson
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
49.8% (5,396)
+6.1%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
54.6% (885)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
42.3% (707)
+5.7%
On power play, Staal has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Staal shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Staal
Johnson
Home
56.4% (9,663)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Staal
Johnson
P1
55.2%
50.1%
P2
55.9%
50.6%
P3
54.9%
48.4%
OT
56.2%
42.5%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 09:43 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 09:36 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 1 | 08:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 11:48 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 01:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 00:39 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 15:40 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 28, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 1 | 09:22 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 1 | 11:00 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 1 | 10:42 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 1 | 06:10 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 16, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2018 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2018 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |